REALITY CHECK

Claims, checked at the right boundary.

We identify the claim, show the primary evidence, define what was measured and state exactly what the result establishes.

01TRUE, WITH LIMITS

“NIF achieved net energy.”

NIF produced more fusion energy than laser energy delivered to the target. That boundary excludes the facility electricity used to power the lasers; it was not net electricity from a plant.

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02MISLEADING

“Fusion fuel is unlimited, so fuel is solved.”

Deuterium is abundant. Tritium is scarce and D–T plants must close a demanding breeding, extraction, inventory and accountancy loop.

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03POLICY OBJECTIVE

“DOE says fusion power by the mid-2030s.”

The finalized 2026 roadmap sets an objective for commercial fusion power to the grid in the mid-2030s. It depends on future partnerships and appropriations and does not provide a verified schedule for a specific licensed plant.

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04DEPENDS

“Every fusion architecture has the same waste profile.”

Materials activation, component lifetime and fuel-cycle consequences vary by reaction, neutron spectrum, shielding and plant design.

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OUR METHOD

Every milestone gets five questions.

What happened?
What was measured?
Where is the system boundary?
Which risk was retired?
What must happen next?